Aggregate policy outcomes hide more than they reveal. Using Statistics Canada's SPSD/M and related microsimulation tools, this research applies tax and transfer policy rules to representative individual-level data — revealing who gains, who loses, and by how much when policy changes.
Rather than working with aggregate statistics, microsimulation applies policy rules — tax rates, benefit thresholds, phase-in and phase-out schedules — to a representative sample of individual households. The result is a granular picture of policy impacts: which income groups, family types, and regions benefit, which bear costs, and what the distributional and fiscal effects of reform options would be before they are implemented.
This research relies on Statistics Canada's Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (SPSD/M), the standard tool for costing and distributional analysis of Canadian federal and provincial tax and transfer reforms, modelling the full income support system — income taxes, CPP/EI, child benefits, GST credits, and social assistance interactions. Where SPSD/M's built-in policy model is insufficient, the T1 Family File (T1FF) and Longitudinal Administrative Databank (LAD) — both drawn from actual tax filer records — can be used to directly simulate tax and transfer policy rules on representative microdata, enabling distributional analysis in contexts and jurisdictions not well-served by SPSD/M alone. The Canadian Tax and Credit Simulator (CTaCS) complements this toolkit for specific reform costing.
Ran over 16,000 basic income scenarios for BC using SPSD/M, evaluating cost, recipients, poverty rates and depths, distributional effects, and inequality impacts across a broad range of design variants.
Uses SPSD/M microsimulation to evaluate federal cash transfer reform options — GST/HST credit, Canada Child Benefit, and Canada Workers Benefit — against criteria of reach, adequacy, access, and cost. Recommends expanding the GST/HST credit to $100–$150/month for working-age adults, with monthly distribution and automatic tax filing to close access gaps. A peer-reviewed IRPP Study commissioned by the Affordability Action Council.
Uses microsimulation to assess the distributional impact of the federal government's temporary doubling of the GST Credit — examining who benefits, by how much, and whether the measure effectively targets those most in need.
We work with governments and civil society organizations across Canada on evidence-based policy design and evaluation.